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Patrick Mahomes prop stats & hit rates
Tonight: KC @ DEN
Sun 4:26 PM ET · Spread -1.5 · Total 40.5 · FanDuel lines at build time (Fri Oct 30, 8:02 PM ET), lines move, check the app.
| Prop | Line | Over | Under | L5 | L10 | Season | Median L5 / L10 | Opp vs QB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing Yds · O/U 223.5 | O/U 223.5 | -114 | -114 | 4/5 | 4/6 | 4/6 | 246 / 235.5 | 16th most allowed |
| Passing TDs · O/U 1.5 | O/U 1.5 | +152 | -205 | 3/5 | 4/6 | 4/6 | 2 / 2 | 26th most allowed |
| Rushing Yds · O/U 12.5 | O/U 12.5 | -114 | -114 | 3/5 | 4/6 | 4/6 | 14 / 15 | 6th most allowed |
Floor lines tonight cleared 8+ of last 10
| Line | FanDuel | L10 | L5 | Median L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 150+ Passing Yds | -900 | 6/6 | 5/5 | 235.5 |
| 175+ Passing Yds | -420 | 5/6 | 4/5 | 235.5 |
Hit rates are history, not a promise. Model picks, not locks. 21+ | 1-800-GAMBLER
Hit rates on common NFL prop lines
How often Patrick Mahomes cleared each line in his last 5 games, last 10 games and this season. "20+" means 20 or more (the same as Over 19.5).
Passing Yds
Last 10 avg 245.7 · median 235.5
| Line | L5 | L10 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 175+ | 4/5 | 5/6 | 5/6 |
| 200+ | 4/5 | 4/6 | 4/6 |
| 225+ | 4/5 | 4/6 | 4/6 |
| 250+ | 2/5 | 2/6 | 2/6 |
| 275+ | 1/5 | 1/6 | 1/6 |
Passing TDs
Last 10 avg 1.5 · median 2
| Line | L5 | L10 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ | 3/5 | 4/6 | 4/6 |
| 2+ | 3/5 | 4/6 | 4/6 |
| 3+ | 1/5 | 1/6 | 1/6 |
Pass Completions
Last 10 avg 20.7 · median 19.5
| Line | L5 | L10 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15+ | 5/5 | 6/6 | 6/6 |
| 18+ | 4/5 | 4/6 | 4/6 |
| 20+ | 3/5 | 3/6 | 3/6 |
| 22+ | 2/5 | 2/6 | 2/6 |
| 25+ | 1/5 | 1/6 | 1/6 |
Pass Attempts
Last 10 avg 31.8 · median 30
| Line | L5 | L10 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25+ | 4/5 | 5/6 | 5/6 |
| 30+ | 4/5 | 4/6 | 4/6 |
| 35+ | 1/5 | 1/6 | 1/6 |
| 40+ | 1/5 | 1/6 | 1/6 |
Rushing Yds
Last 10 avg 11.8 · median 15
| Line | L5 | L10 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20+ | 0/5 | 1/6 | 1/6 |
Anytime TD
Last 10 avg 0.2 · median 0
| Line | L5 | L10 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ | 0/5 | 1/6 | 1/6 |
Snap share trend
Last 6 games, oldest to newest. A drop here is the first sign a line is getting harder to clear.
Patrick Mahomes game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap | C/A | Pass Yd | Pass TD | Rush Yd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | @ SEA | 100 | 19/33 | 165 | 0 | 14 | 0 |
| 6 | vs LAC | 100 | 23/30 | 272 | 0 | 16 | 0 |
| 4 | @ LV | 100 | 15/30 | 225 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | @ MIA | 100 | 20/24 | 246 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | vs IND | 100 | 32/47 | 382 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| 1 | vs DEN | 100 | 15/27 | 184 | 2 | 23 | 1 |
Quick answers
What has Patrick Mahomes averaged in passing yds over his last 10 games?
245.7 passing yds per game over his last 6 games (median 235.5), through Oct 30, 2026.
How often does Patrick Mahomes get 225+ passing yds?
4 of his last 6 games and 4 of 6 games this season.
How often does Patrick Mahomes get 20+ rushing yds?
1 of his last 6 games and 1 of 6 games this season.
Is Patrick Mahomes playing tonight?
Listed Active as of 8:12 PM ET. Check again close to game time.
Patrick Mahomes FanDuel props · All NFL player stats · Floor-line board · Defense vs position
Sources: nflverse-data releases (CC-BY 4.0): weekly player stats, snap counts (via Pro-Football-Reference), schedules; injury status from the official NBA report and ESPN; tonight's lines from FanDuel Sportsbook (Michigan). Model picks, not locks. Hit rates describe past games only. 21+ | Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.