Free tool · Long-Shot Hunter
The +500 Hunter
What our system found that may be likely to hit more often than the price says: cross-game NFL and NBA player-prop combos where our model rates every leg better than FanDuel's price. Still long shots. Model picks, not locks.
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Read this first: a long shot is still a long shot. Even when our model likes a combo more than the book does, it should lose most of the time. These are combos we think are priced longer than they should be (the book is underrating them), not likely winners. Small stakes only, and only money you're fine losing.
Today's combos
Legs that passed the checkup
Each one: our model's chance vs the chance FanDuel's price implies.
| Player · leg | FanDuel | Priced | Model |
|---|
How the hunter works
- Prices: FanDuel's main over/under player props (NFL passing, rushing and receiving yards and receptions; NBA points, rebounds, assists and threes), captured at build time. We strip the vig to get a fair price for each leg.
- Our number: a public projection from ScoresAndOdds blended with our own read (recent game logs adjusted for how the opponent defends that position, from our Defense vs Position data). Both have to land on the same side of the line, and we pull our number halfway-plus back toward the market so we don't oversell an edge.
- The test: a leg only counts if our chance beats the chance its FanDuel price implies. A combo only shows if its model chance beats its price by at least 8%.
- One leg per game: every combo is cross-game, so no same-game parlay pricing and no legs that lean on each other.
- Active players only: anyone listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable on ESPN's injury report is skipped. News moves fast, so check the app before you tap.
- Ranking: highest model chance first, so shorter-priced legs and fewer legs rise to the top. Combos that load on both FanDuel and BetMGM get a small preference.
- Two books: the model uses FanDuel's prices. "Load on BetMGM" appears only when every leg is live on BetMGM at the same line; its price can differ, and we show it. Otherwise the BetMGM button opens the league page and you add the legs by hand.
- If nothing passes on a given day, this page says so instead of forcing picks.