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Cowboys vs Eagles MNF: McKee Steps In as Both Teams Sit at 2-4

Nobody circled this one as a battle of 2-4 teams. But that is exactly what Monday night at Lincoln Financial Field is: the Dallas Cowboys and the Philadelphia Eagles, both 2-4, both banged up, both still very much alive in an NFC East nobody has grabbed. Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET.

The headline is the quarterback room in Philly. Jalen Hurts is on injured reserve after a blood clot diagnosis and is expected to miss the rest of the season, so Tanner McKee gets the keys. Here is what the numbers say about how Cowboys at Eagles could shape up.

The Hurts-less Eagles, by the numbers

Hurts played five games before going down. His line: 933 passing yards, 8 touchdowns, and a rushing role that never fully showed up (107 yards on 23 carries). McKee has one start this season, against Carolina in Week 6, where he went 26 of 45 for 215 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions.

That Carolina game is the best preview we have, and it tells you two things:

  • The volume was real. 45 attempts is a lot. McKee was asked to carry the offense, partly because the run game had vanished.
  • The efficiency was not. 215 yards on 45 throws is 4.8 yards per attempt. Hurts was not lighting it up either (his Week 4 was 12 of 27 for 93 yards), but McKee is now working without his top two receivers.

DeVonta Smith (hamstring) and Dontayvion Wicks (ankle) are both ruled out. Smith had 310 yards in four games and was the clear No. 1 when healthy, including a 10-catch, 117-yard day against Tennessee in Week 2.

Who catches the ball in Philly?

With Smith and Wicks out, the target tree gets thin fast. Here is what the healthy options have done through six weeks:

PlayerGamesCatchesYardsTDs
Dallas Goedert (TE)4171802
Makai Lemon (WR)6181270
Darius Cooper (WR)681394

Goedert has been the steady one, with six catches in each of his last two games. Darius Cooper is the fun stat of the season: eight catches, four touchdowns. That is a touchdown every other catch, which is not a pace anyone keeps, but it shows the Eagles look for him near the end zone. Makai Lemon has the most catches of the three but just 7.1 yards per grab.

Every player named in this post has a full week-by-week game log on his player page if you want to check the numbers yourself.

The Saquon question

Saquon Barkley is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury, and he has not played since leaving the Week 4 game early. The Eagles' run game since then has been rough:

  • Weeks 1 to 4: 136, 89, 107 and 104 team rushing yards
  • Weeks 5 and 6 (no Barkley): 22 and 35

Dropping to 22 and 35 is a collapse, and it puts a backup quarterback in third-and-long all night. Barkley's own season line is quiet (182 yards on 36 carries in four games), but two of those games were 15-carry, 80-plus-yard outings before the hamstring.

Here is the part Eagles fans will like: Dallas has struggled to stop the run. The Cowboys allowed 165, 182, 192 and 241 rushing yards in four of their six games. They held Houston and Green Bay to 62 and 57, so it is not every week, but the leaks are real. If Barkley plays and looks like himself, this is the matchup where the Philly ground game can come back to life.

Dallas: a passing offense on volume

The Cowboys have the opposite problem. Their run game has been modest (48 and 50 team rushing yards the last two weeks), so the offense runs through Dak Prescott's arm.

Prescott has thrown for 1,639 yards, 10 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in six games, an average of 273 yards a game. He has topped 250 in five straight. The attempts tell the story: 45, 42 and 54 the last three weeks.

Most of that volume goes to two players:

ReceiverTargetsCatchesYardsTDs
CeeDee Lamb69485774
George Pickens52334281

CeeDee Lamb's season is a bit of a roller coaster. He had 153 yards against Washington, 112 against Baltimore, and a monster 17-catch, 189-yard game on 21 targets against Houston. Then came a 2-catch, 9-yard dud against Tampa Bay before he bounced back with 9 catches for 70 yards on 18 targets in Green Bay. Take out the Tampa game and he is averaging 114 yards.

George Pickens has been the steadier piece, with at least six catches in four of six games and a 130-yard day against the Bucs when Lamb was quiet. Javonte Williams does his work at the goal line: only 317 rushing yards, but 7 rushing touchdowns.

Where this game tilts

The Eagles' pass defense is the matchup Dallas will be looking at. Philadelphia has allowed 181.2 receiving yards per game to wide receivers this season, fifth most in the league in our defense vs position tables. Over the last four games it is 202.5 a game, second most. Wide receivers put up 196, 176, 204 and 234 yards on the Eagles over the last four weeks.

So the shape of this one is pretty clear on paper:

  1. Dallas throws a lot, and the Eagles have been giving up yards to receivers.
  2. Philly wants to run, but that only works if Barkley is back.
  3. McKee has to avoid mistakes with a short receiver list.

None of that decides a game by itself. Turnovers, a Barkley setback or one big special-teams play can flip all of it. But if you are watching tonight, keep an eye on the Eagles' first two drives. If Barkley is on the field and getting carries, this game looks a lot different than if McKee is throwing on second-and-10.

If you are making a slip

Most of this post is for fans, but a quick note for anyone building a slip for the game. The model lean we like best on this matchup lines up with the story above: Lamb's volume against a defense that has leaked yards to receivers.

CeeDee Lamb (Dallas Cowboys WR) · Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles · Mon Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET
Receiving yards: Over 78.5 (-113 on FanDuel, captured Mon Oct 26, 1:06 AM ET). Our model makes it about 55% against the 53% the price implies. That is a thin edge, and lines move before kickoff.

When we pulled lines overnight it was 78.5 at FanDuel and 81.5 at BetMGM, so check both before you add it. If you are stacking more than one leg from this game, run it through the bet slip checker first so you can see how correlated the legs are.

Model picks, not locks. For entertainment and information only. 21+ | 1-800-GAMBLER. If betting stops being fun, read our responsible gaming page.

Where these numbers come from